The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a branch of the Department of Energy, has predicted “significant growth in worldwide energy demand over the 28-year period from 2012 to 2040,” which is the time line covered in the International Energy Outlook 2016, which was released this week.
“Total world consumption of marketed energy expands form 549 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2012 to 629 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and to 815 quadrillion Btu in 2040 – a 48 percent increase form 2012 to 2040,” the EIA said in a summary of the report.
The report's projections do not include the effects of the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which is currently held up by legal challenges. The “preliminary analysis” of the plan, should it come into effect, however, forecasts a 21 percent (about 4 quadrillion Btu) reduction in U.S. coal consumption in 2020 and 24 percent (almost 5 quadrillion Btu) in 2040 relative to IEO2016 Reference case projection.
“With the CPP, U.S. renewable energy use in 2020 would be 7 percent (about 1 quadrillion Btu) higher than the reference case and in 2040 it would be 37 percent higher,” the report says, adding that U.S. consumption of petroleum and other fossil fuels, including natural gas, would be slightly lower with the Clean Power Plan.
The lion's share of the energy demand growth will be outside of the United States and most of that occurring among developing nations – nations that are outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Non-OECD demand for energy rises by 71 percent from 2012 to 2040, the EIA said. “In contrast, in the more mature energy-consuming and slower-growing OECD economies, total energy use rises by only 18 percent from 2012 to 2040.
The EIA report notes a correlation between economic growth and faster rates of energy demand growth. “Over the past 30 years, world economic growth has been led by the non-OECD countries, accompanied by strong growth in energy demand in the region,” the report says. In numbers, gross domestic product growth among non-OECD countries from 1990 to 2012 rose by 4.9 percent per year, while GDP growth in OECD countries rose by 2 percent per year.
The EIA said more than half of the projected demand growth for energy is expected in nations of non-OECD Asia, a grouping that includes China and India. Energy demand in non-OECD Asia should rise 83 percent (or by 146 quadrillion Btu) from 2012 to 2040. In particular, economic growth in China and India has been among the world's fastest in recent decades, the report notes.
Outside of Asia, fast population growth and access to modern resources will contributed to 93 percent (30 quadrillion Btu) of growth in the Middle East from 2012 to 2040, says the EIA. “Similarly, Africa's energy consumption more than doubles (a total increase of 22 quadrillion Btu) and energy use in non-OECD Americas region grows by 53 percent (16 quadrillion Btu).
Among non-OECD nations, the smallest increase in demand by region is to occur in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, including Russia, where growth is projected at a 14 percent over the 2012 to 2040 time line.
Anonymous comments will be moderated. Join for free and post now!
